미국, 경기선행지수

경기선행지수, Leading Economic Index(LEI)

미국 경제연구기관 '컨퍼런스보드'에서 발표하는 경기종합지수중 하나
※ 경기종합지수 : 경기선행지수, 경기동행지수, 경기후행지수

10개 구성 항목

① Average weekly hours in manufacturing, 제조업 주당 평균 노동시간
The average hours worked per week by production workers in manufacturing industries tend to lead the business
cycle because employers usually adjust work hours before increasing or decreasing their workforce

② Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, 신규실업수당 청구건수
The number of new claims filed for unemployment insurance are typically more sensitive than either total employment or unemployment to overall business conditions, and this series tends to lead the business cycle.

③ Manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials, 제조업체의 소비재/자재 신규 주문
These goods are primarily used by consumers. The inflation-adjusted value of new orders leads actual production because new orders directly affect the level of both unfilled orders and inventories that firms monitor when making production decisions.

④ ISM Index of New Orders, 공급자관리협회 신규주문지수
This index reflects the levels of new orders from customers. As a diffusion index, its value reflects the number of participants reporting increased orders during the previous month compared to the number reporting decreased orders, and this series tends to lead the business cycle. When the index has a reading of greater than 50 it is an indication that orders have increased during the past month. This index, therefore, tends to lead the business cycle. ISM new orders is based on a monthly survey conducted by Institution for Supply Management (formerly known as National Association of Purchasing Management). The Conference Board takes normalized value of this index as a measure of its contribution to LEI

⑤ Manufacturers’ new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders, 비국방 자본재 신규 주문

⑥ Building permits for new private housing units, 민간주택 신규 허가건수
The number of residential building permits issued is an indicator of construction activity, which typically leads most other types of economic production

⑦ S&P 500 Index of Stock Prices, S&P 500 주가지수
The Standard & Poor's 500 stock index reflects the price movements of a broad selection of common stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange. Increases (decreases) of the stock index can reflect both the general sentiments of investors and the movements of interest rates, which is usually another good indicator for future economic activity

⑧ Leading Credit Index, 선행 신용지수
This index is consisted of six financial indicators: 2-years Swap Spread (real time), LIBOR 3 month less 3 month Treasury-Bill yield spread (real time), Debit balances at margin account at broker dealer (monthly),  AAII Investors Sentiment Bullish (%) less Bearish (%) (weekly), Senior Loan Officers C&I loan survey – Bank tightening Credit to Large and Medium Firms (quarterly), and Security Repurchases (quarterly) from the Total Finance-Liabilities section of Federal Reserve’s flow of fund report. Because of these financial indicators' forward looking content, LCI leads economic activities

⑨ Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds rate), 장단기 금리차(10년-연준금리)
The spread or difference between long and short rates is often called the yield curve. This series is constructed using the 10-year Treasury bond rate and the federal funds rate, an overnight interbank borrowing rate. It is felt to be an indicator of the stance of monetary policy and general financial conditions because it rises (falls) when short rates are relatively low (high). When it becomes negative (i.e., short rates are higher than long rates and the yield curve inverts) its record as an indicator of recessions is particularly strong

⑩ Average consumer expectations for business conditions, 미시건대/컨퍼런스보드 소비자기대지수 평균
This index reflects changes in consumer attitudes concerning future economic conditions and, therefore, is the only indicator in the leading index that is completely expectations-based. It is an equally weighted average of consumer expectations of business and economic conditions using two questions, Consumer Expectations for Economic Conditions 12-months ahead from Surveys of Consumers conducted by Reuters/University of Michigan, and Consumer Expectations for Business Conditions 6-months ahead from Consumer Confidence Survey by The Conference Board. Responses to the questions concerning various business and economic conditions are classified as positive, negative, or unchanged

* https://www.conference-board.org/data/bci/index.cfm?id=2160#BCI106

 

언제쯤 바닦을 치고 올라올려나..

 

 

< 경기선행지수, GDP 증가율, '22.11.18 업데이트 >

 

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators